making notice

beginner's luck seems to make sense. after watching the show my brilliant brain, i had an idea. or a muse, of sorts. while many pass off the notion of beginner's luck as being just that, luck, i actually think there's a quite reasonable explanation as to how its more than just luck.

if we take the example in the show about chess masters (and grandmasters), their mastery of the game stems from their ability to recognise moves before they happen, and hence act accordingly. a chess pro is able to predict his or her opponents moves, and according to the show, this is done by matching what they see on the board with their bank of chess memories, and hence determine (instinctively) what to do.

now, how does this relate to beginner's luck? if we look at games, lets say strategic games like chess or checkers or what not, the pro is separated from the rest by his ability to predict his opponents moves. for arguments sake lets assume everyone is male. i mean, it appears that the very best dont actually have to think about their moves, it becomes instinctive after awhile. so, when beginner's somehow upset better players, is it just luck? i dont think so. i think what happens is that beginners, due to their inferior abilities, introduce the factor of uncertainty, and in certain cases, possibly randomness. and what this does is that it probably disrupts the better players ability to predict his opponents next move. when good players play great players, great players will triumph because good players will sorta know what to do, and the great players know they know what to do. but i suppose beginners just mess things up. so, is it really luck then?

what about games like sports? dont better players just have better ability, which discounts the notion of predictability? again, i think the same concept probably applies, although maybe differently. tennis is an example that comes to mind. when good players play, they kinda know what to expect from their opponents. topspin, slices, kick services, its all in the book. and the pros will know how to deal with it. but what happens when u put a total novice to play a pro? many people (me included possibly) will say that the pro will surely have the ability to deal with wadeva the other guy throws at him. but again i think the unpredictability of the situation matters. maybe not individual points, but perhaps disrupting the rhythm of the game as a whole.
the problem here is that, it seems like anyone can have this beginner's luck, right? i mean, all we need to do is to do things a little randomly. but i dont think this is the case. i mean, there is randomness, and there is planned randomness. (well of course there is always the argument that nothing is actually truly random, because it would have to stretch on to infinity, but lets not go there) my point is, i dont think its actually possible for a good player to effectively exhibit novice behaviour. certain habits and preferences and traits will show through.

i realise that the notion of beginner's luck appear to apply solely to individual games/contests. in teams, i suppose there are too many variables to consider, for the effect of unpredictability to be felt.

so yes, there is no such thing as beginner's luck. not really.

( i realise, all the above is prob bullshit concocted to try justify faring worst than people seemingly weaker or lousier than i am. ah well, i'm pissed hurting)